Asian regional income, growth, and distribution to 2030
As Asia consolidates the economic gains and policy lessons of twogenerations, it can look to a bright future of sustained growth. More effectivepolicies will even accelerate this growth, provided they recognize the essentialagents of trade and productivity growth, as well as the importance ofpromoti...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Asian development review |
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | UnknownFormat |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2010
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| Schlagworte: |
2010-2030
> Wirtschaftswachstum
> Verteilungswirkung
> Soziale Schicht
> Simulation
> Asien
> Wirtschaftsentwicklung
> Regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung
> Weltwirtschaft
> Einkommen
> Einkommensverteilung
> Sozioökonomischer Wandel
> Energiepolitik
> Berufliche Fortbildung
> Entwicklung
> Tendenz
> Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung
> Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
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Tag hinzufügen | Zusammenfassung: | As Asia consolidates the economic gains and policy lessons of twogenerations, it can look to a bright future of sustained growth. More effectivepolicies will even accelerate this growth, provided they recognize the essentialagents of trade and productivity growth, as well as the importance ofpromoting domestic regional demand. Rising incomes promise greaterhomegrown demand for domestic producers and essential diversification forregional exporters.This study surveys historical income distribution data from 22 Asianeconomies, projects the emergence of middle classes in the next 20 years, andexamines its role in Asian economies. The study also examines the drivers ofgrowth over this periond using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model to forecast GDP and consumption trends.The findings suggest that Asia can sustain and even accelerate current patternsof poverty reduction and livelihood advancement beyond poverty. Over thenext 20 years, about 1 billion people will be added to the 2.7 billion Asianmiddle class (based on $2-a- day PPP standard). The rate of middle classemergence will be uneven across the region and will depend mostly on initialconditions.The results also suggest that energy price vulnerability is a critical risk toregional growth-and calls for energy efficiency measures to insure againstthis risk. The agricultural productivity growth can improve both the incomesof the majority of Asia’s rural poor and the purchasing power of urbanites.Policies that reduce both energy and food costs can therefore be a potentsource of new demand for products and services as well as jobs.Finally, given the importance of labor resources to Asian growth, skillsdevelopment is the most critical prerequisite for realizing the vast economicpotential of Asia. Higher incomes, a larger middle class, and self-sustainingprosperity can only be built on the foundation of a skilled and productivelabor force that captures significant value added and channels higher incomesinto sustained long-term expenditure, savings, and investment. (Asian Dev Rev/GIGA) |
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| Beschreibung: | graph. Darst. |
| ISSN: | 0116-1105 |