Trusting judgements how to get the best out of experts
"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet eve...
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | UnknownFormat |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
2016
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| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online Zugang: | Cover image Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| Zusammenfassung: | "Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made".. |
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| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | ix, 203 pages ill. |
| ISBN: | 9781107112087 978-1-107-11208-7 9781107531024 978-1-107-53102-4 |