Use of system dynamics for macro-financial scenario assessment debt and currency crises in Russia
In this contribution, we aim at describing the problem of debt and currency crisis by means of system dynamics modeling. We use the historical evidence from the Russian default in 1998 as an example. First, we apply the system dynamics approach to quantitatively assess the Russian economic crisis of...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Feedback economics |
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| Format: | UnknownFormat |
| Sprache: | eng |
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2021
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Tag hinzufügen | Zusammenfassung: | In this contribution, we aim at describing the problem of debt and currency crisis by means of system dynamics modeling. We use the historical evidence from the Russian default in 1998 as an example. First, we apply the system dynamics approach to quantitatively assess the Russian economic crisis of 1998 and analyze various fiscal and monetary policies that were available to the government at that time. We compare these policies to the historical evidence from the Russian economy. By doing so, we wish to see whether the default could have been avoided or its destructive effect could have been mitigated. Second, we apply the model to the situation in Russia in early 2015 when signs of a new crisis appeared, and based on the simulation results we suggest an optimal economic policy the government within the boundaries of the model. |
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| ISBN: | 9783030671891 3030671895 |