Konjunkturschwäche in Deutschland wird nur zögerlich überwunden
According to the recently released data, the German economy started forcefully into the year 2005. Real GDP increased with an annual rate of 4.2 percent on a seasonal and calendar adjusted basis. Growth of such a magnitude had last been observed at the start of 2001. The impulses came solely from ex...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Die Weltwirtschaft |
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , , |
| Format: | UnknownFormat |
| Sprache: | ger |
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2005
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Tag hinzufügen | Zusammenfassung: | According to the recently released data, the German economy started forcefully into the year 2005. Real GDP increased with an annual rate of 4.2 percent on a seasonal and calendar adjusted basis. Growth of such a magnitude had last been observed at the start of 2001. The impulses came solely from exports, domestic demand declined again. However, the calendar-adjusted data for the first quarter are likely to overstate the cyclical tendency. The reason is the high number of working days in last December which were probably not completely used for additional production as assumed by the calendar adjustment procedure. As a consequence, production growth is underestimated for the fourth quarter of 2004 and overestimated for the first quarter of 2005. Taking the winter half year together gives an annualized growth rate of 1.8 percent. It is likely that after the turn of the year the economy has already started to lose momentum. The business climate has been declined steadily since December and capacity utilization in manufacturing was lower in the first quarter than in the preceding quarter. In spring, the economy has probably lost further momentum. Industrial production stagnated in April, orders to manufacturing were substantially lower in April than in the first quarter and the sentiment indicators are pointing downwards. Against this background and given the overestimation of growth in the first quarter, we expect GDP to have declined somewhat (-1 percent, annualized) in the second quarter. The situation on the labor market deteriorated further. Employment liable to social security contributions fell, again. Overall employment increased slightly but this was mainly due to a rise of self-employment, especially in the form of the 'Ich-AGs', and 'One-Euro-Jobs'. Consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.7 percent in May as a result of soaring energy prices. Consumer prices excluding energy in contrast, have been stagnating since the turn of the year. The 'core' rate of inflation was 0.9 percent in April. Following the decline that we expect for the second quarter, real GDP will increase, again, in the second half of the year. Capacity utilization, however, will probably continue to fall. Exports will rise only moderately given the cyclical weakness in the rest of the euro area. Domestic demand will grow even slower. Against the background of falling sales expectations and high raw materials prices, firms will be reluctant to invest and consumers hold back spending as fuel costs have risen and the situation on the labor market is unfavorable. Housing construction will continue to shrink, although not as fast as before. Next year, growth in the rest of the euro area and in other parts of the world will pick up, so there will be an accelerated increase in foreign demand. As perspectives for sales brighten up, investment will start to grow faster, fuelled by low interest rates, falling raw materials prices and only moderately rising labor costs as well as by tax reductions. Private consumption expenditure will also rise faster, given accelerating real disposable income. All in all, real GDP will increase by 0.7 percent in 2005 and by 1.3 percent in 2006. The forecast is based on the assumption that no major changes occur in economic policy after the election that is now planned for the autumn of 2005. (Die Weltwirtschaft / SWP) |
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| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | graph. Darst |
| ISSN: | 0043-2652 |